Earnings Not Telling The Story For Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) After Shares Rise 26%

Despite an already strong run, Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 26% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 54% in the last year.

Following the firm bounce in price, Alphabet's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 26.4x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 19x and even P/E's below 11x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

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With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Alphabet has been doing relatively well. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to persist, which has raised the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

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Is There Enough Growth For Alphabet?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Alphabet's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 35%. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 76% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 11% per year over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 11% growth per year, the company is positioned for a comparable earnings result.

In light of this, it's curious that Alphabet's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Alphabet shares have received a push in the right direction, but its P/E is elevated too. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of Alphabet's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are uncomfortable with the relatively high share price as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. Our free balance sheet analysis for Alphabet with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.